A Demographic Analyses of Iceland and Policy Recommendations

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

A Quick Look at Iceland's Demographics

Hallo! Welcome to Iceland

Iceland is a country unlike any other in our world. It is located in northern Europe to the southeast of Greenland and the northwest of the United Kingdom, and is the second largest island in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Population In Millions

With a population of 313,183 (2011 est.), it has one of the smallest populations. The capital is Reykjavik and is home to 198,000 Icelanders. Their small population is especially interesting considering they have a decent land mass area of 100,250 sq km. This makes their population per square kilometer to be only 3 persons.

Unlike most other smaller countries, Iceland is rather developed. The country is 93% urban with the rural population living mostly on the coast in fishing communities or on farmlands. Both areas have 100% improved sanitation. Their population trends are similar to those on the developed side of the global demographic divide as well. There are an estimated 15 births per 1,000 and 6 deaths per 1,000, making their rate of natural increase a moderate .9%. Their total population growth rate is estimated at .674%. By mid-2050, their projected population is a mere 400,000 people. The total fertility rate is at replacement level with 2.1, and the infant mortality rate is a low 2.5. The percent of the population with HIV/AIDS is on the low side with .3% for males and .1% for females. The average life expectancy at birth for the total population is 81, with 80 being the average for males and 83 for females.

Currently, they are not facing the issues of having an elder population, but most likely will in the future. Their elderly support ration as of 2010 was 6 working persons for every person 65 or older, and the percent of their population ages 15 and younger was 21% while 65 and older was only 12%. In 2050, the elder support ratio is projected to be only 2:1.

Economically, Iceland is doing rather well. The gross national income in PPP per capita is $25,220 as of 2008. The unemployment rate rose dramatically in 2009, following world-wide economic disaster, from 1.6% to 8%, but is slowly decreasing and was estimated at 7.4% in 2011(statice.is).
The environment is diverse and offers many natural resources.

Reykjavik

Skólavörðustígur

Jokulsarlon lagoon

Gullfoss

How Iceland Stands Next To Its Region And The World

Population Comparisons

Next to the Channel Islands, with a population of 200,000, Iceland has the next smallest population of all Northern Europe by far, and is the fifth smallest population of all of Europe. Of the entire world population, Iceland accounts for a mere .00004%. In comparison to all of Europe, Iceland has the third largest percent of population ages 15 and younger at 21%, and has the sixth smallest percent of population of those ages 65 and older, at 12%. Since the younger population is greater percent-wise in regards to the average throughout Europe, Iceland’s fertility rate is also on the high end when compared to its region at 2.1. Although this is the desired replacement level that most growing countries are trying to reach, it is higher than the European average of 1.6. Iceland also stands out in its death rates, having the fourth lowest number of deaths per 1,000 of the population throughout Europe.

Iceland’s life expectancy surpasses the world average of 69 by 12 years, and the European average of 76 by 5 years. When ranked, Iceland has the 19^th highest life expectancy in the world. The net migration rate for Iceland is the absolute lowest throughout all of Europe at -15 per 1,000 persons, and the fifth lowest when compared to all countries of the world.

Human Welfare Comparisons

The percent of the Iceland population with HIV/AIDS is low compared to the world and similar to Northern Europe’s average of .3% for males and .1% for females. The percent of population using improved sanitation is 100% in rural and urban areas, surpassing world, European and even Northern European averages. The adult obesity prevalence rate is 12.4%, ranking them 46^th in the world.

Economic Comparisons

The gross national income in PPP per capita for Iceland is about average in terms of the European world, falling short of the European average of $25,580 by only $370. In comparison to Northern and Western European averages, Iceland’s average GNI PPP is on the low side, but in comparison to Eastern and Southern Europe, it is high for the most part, and certainly high compared to the world average of $10,030. The amount of external debt that Iceland owes is high in comparison to other smaller countries of the world at $124.5 billion, ranking 37^th globally as of 2011. Still, they owe a lower amount than most of their Northern European neighbors.

Environmental Comparisons

Iceland has high amounts of renewable water sources as well as large amounts of hydro and geothermal power. This allows Iceland to heat their water and homes at a less expensive cost than in other countries.

Also, Iceland's large coastline (since it is an island) allows for significant fishing opportunities.

Key Society Features of Iceland

Religion

Iceland has an interesting religious composition. Most Icelanders are member of the National Church of Iceland and other Lutheran based religions. Few are catholic, and there is a large amount of those who have no faith what so ever. Considering their low birthrates, it would be interesting to see exactly how much their religious background has affected this trend.

Equality

Iceland has gender equality unlike any other. Men and women obtain education and careers at similar levels. Iceland has also gained equality in sexual orientation, legalizing gay marriage and providing equal marriage rights to homo and hetero sexual couples.
The most notable achievement in this area is the election of their most recent prime minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir, who is not only their first female leader, but also the world's first openly gay leader.

It would be valuable to study what exactly created such liberal views in equality in Iceland. I would most likely attribute it to their religious make up, but perhaps there are other underlying factors that have led to such a level of equality.

Environment

Iceland also has a very unique environment. Sometimes referred to as the "land of fire and ice", Iceland is composed of everything from glaciers and mountains to pastures to volcanoes and hot springs.

Volcanic activity persists in Iceland, but is rarely life threatening. There is an average of about 30 volcanoes throughout Iceland.

Eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull volcano: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2010/mar/25/iceland-volcano-eruption

Their natural hot springs are a huge tourism attraction.

Iceland also benefits from a large pool of hydroelectric power. Dettifoss is Europe's largest waterfall in terms of volume.

Also, Iceland better than most in terms of renewable resources.

Iceland's Top 5 Population Problems

Lack of Immigration from Under Developed Countries

Net Migration Rates In Greater Reykjavik vs Rest of Iceland

Iceland's immigration rates have risen over the years, but continues to fall more recently. This is largely due to their recent economic crisis, pushing many to leave the country. The majority of these immigrants come from the neighboring country of Poland, and very few come from countries outside of Europe. Not only does this lead to a lack of foreign relations, but also a lack of a potential foreign work force.

Size of Work Force

Although the unemployment rate in Iceland is at a moderate level, their small population size still leaves them with a small work force when compared to other developed countries. Considering the amount of natural resources available, a larger work force in those areas could create an even larger growing economy for the country. Immigration will be a key factor as to whether or Iceland can increase the size of their workforce significantly.

Marriage Trends

Over the past decades, marriage rates in Iceland have fallen and births outside of wed-lock have increased, as well as abortion rates. In the year 2000, the amount of out-of-wedlock births was at 64%. These are trends that have led to the low birthrates in Iceland, and the continuation of these trends could lead to undesirably low birth rates in the future, especially when Iceland could use to expand its population.

Age at First Birth

Women in Iceland are having children later and later as years go on, a trend which commonly leads to lowering birthrates as well. This is most likely due to the importance placed on obtaining higher education in Iceland, causing women to postpone motherhood until mid-20s to 30s.

Fishing Industry

Fishing has been Iceland's most important resource for years, and is now creating many of its current problems. Just recently, Iceland applied to become an official member of the European Union. However, tensions over Iceland's water territories and rate of fishing is making Icelanders and European Union member alike weary of official membership.

Predicted Top 5 Population Problems

Immigration

Iceland has a rather low immigration rate, usually hovering on the negative side. Considering their decreasing birth rates, a lack of immigration could lead to a dangerously low work force for the country. This is even more important considering the amount of debt possessed by the country. Immigration to Iceland could increase their exports of natural resources, therefore increasing their economy.

Culture

Iceland is known for their gender equality in all aspects of life and set a wonderful example for countries trying to obtain such equality. It is not here that a possible issue lies, but when immigration is considered, Iceland's modern gender views could create hostile issues. Aside from gender equality, religion lacks heavy importance in Iceland. The most prominent type of religion is Lutheran, and even then few make religion a part of their everyday lives. If immigration is to increase in Iceland, a trend that would benefit the economy, it is possible that we would see similar social issues to those of France towards their Muslim population. Developing nations have ideals that are polar opposites of those of Iceland, and intolerance from one side or the other could become prevalent if immigration from such countries grows.

Welfare

In Iceland, almost every service is provided by government. Health care is universal and only small fees are paid out of pocket, primary and higher education are funded by the government, and retirement and pensions are funded by taxes as well. Currently, this is working well for the country and has helped lead to their success in education rates and health conditions. The issue for the future focuses around their work force. With birthrates declining and considering their less-than-perfect economic standing, the workforce in Iceland is not particularly growing. As the population continues to age, there is the possibility that they will see similar issues to the U.S. in regards to having sufficient funds to support their elderly and retired population, especially considering how heavily these systems depend on tax payer money.

Environment

With most of their natural resources still fairing well in supply, there is a worry that as a need for a growing economy increases, so will use of their resources for exports. Along with this, their fishing industry is already declining and will most likely continue to do so as they continue to hunt for species which most countries have banned or limited. Iceland should be sure to carefully monitor their use of natural resources.

Lack of Foreign Relations

Iceland is one of few European countries to not be a member of the EU. Although they have applied, membership is not certain. Considering their struggling economy, belonging to the EU could benefit them in regaining stability. Also, Iceland lacks a formal military, so having such foreign relations could be a huge asset when it comes to the possibility of war. Although exports and imports with foreign countries are increasing, they are still at a minimal level considering the amount of exports available in Iceland. All of these factors could lead to further instability issues when it comes to economy and human welfare.

Iceland In Regards To The United Nations Millennium Development Goals

#1: Ending Poverty and Hunger

The first goal in this section is to halve the proportion of people who live off of $1 or less per day. Iceland has done well in this area. Their at risk of poverty level was around 10% in 2004, a rather low statistic. Of those 10%, none are even close to an income at or around only $1 per day, considering their high average income.
The second goal within this category is to have a productive employment force that is equal among men and women, young and old. For the past two years, Iceland’s unemployment rate has bobbed between 6% and 8%. This is higher than the country is used to and can be attributed to the economic crisis that affected most of the developed world around 2009. For the most part, though, this unemployment rate is on the low side. Men are slightly more prevalent in the work force than women, with 77% of the employment rate being men and 72.1% being women. Also, adults over age 24 have a lower unemployment rate but this can be contributed to the fact that most Icelanders go on to obtain university-level education rather than entering the work force after finishing primary or secondary schooling.
The third goal is to halve the amount of the world suffering from hunger. The percent of Icelanders who suffer from being undernourished is less than 2.5%, which considering the size of their population is very few people. As long as the unemployment rate can continue to drop, this number should stay or fall below its current level.

#2: Achieve Universal Primary Education

For this next goal, Iceland is doing outstandingly well. As of 2009 they had a total net enrollment rate of 99.4% for boys and girls in primary schooling. Education in Iceland is not only a guaranteed right but is widespread and advanced throughout the country. They spend 7.4% of their GDP on education, a percent higher than most developed countries of the world. Also, Iceland has an impressive 99% literacy rate.

#3: Gender Equality

This is another goal that Iceland is doing better in than most other countries. In 2010, the net enrollment primary enrollment rate was slightly higher for females than males, at 99.3% for males and 99.6% for females. The completion rates are similarly close for both sexes. In parliament, women accounted for 39.7% in 2012, a respectable percentage considering the rest of the world. More recently, Iceland has made history in gender equality. In 2009, Iceland elected their first ever female prime minister, Johanna Sigurdardottir. She is also openly gay, making it a first for country leaders among the world. All in all, Iceland is a global leader in gender equality.

#4: Child Health

This goal is to reduce by 2/3 the under-age-five mortality rate. The infant mortality rate is at a low 2.2 deaths per 1,000 persons, and the mortality rate for those under age five was estimated at 2 per 1,000 in 2010. No deaths were attributed to diarrhea, pneumonia or measles. Iceland has done well at achieving this goal and there is no reason that we should see a decline in progress in the future.

#5: Improve Maternal Health

This goal is to reduce by three quarters the maternal mortality ratio and to achieve universal access to reproductive health. In 2010 there was an average of 5 per 100,000 maternal deaths. This low compared to the world average of 260 per 100,000.
The adolescent birth rate per 1,000 women was 14.6 in 2009, which is also on the low side.
Nursing and midwifery personnel per 10,000 persons are 158 which is a significant amount.
All in all, maternal health is faring well in Iceland and should continue to do so. There is little information about contraceptive use in Iceland, but considering how well educated women throughout the country are and their low birth rates, it is reasonable to assume that family planning methods are used.

#6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Other Diseases

These goals consist of halting said diseases and achieving universal treatment. For Iceland, the average percent of people living with HIV/AIDS has never risen above .3%. The prevalence of tuberculosis in Iceland has fallen steadily over the past decade and stands at about 5.2 per 100,000 persons.
There are zero reported cases of diseases like leprosy and measles, and in 2010 the number of deaths from AIDS reached zero. Most deaths are related to cardiovascular issues and cancers. http://www.who.int/nmh/countries/isl_en.pdf
Iceland's achievement of these goals can be mostly attributed to their small population size, making it easier to control the spread of contagious diseases. Still, their gains in this area are impressive.
Also, the government has steadily increased spending in health care over the years.

#7: Environmental Sustainability

While most countries are destroying their natural habitat at a fast pace, Iceland still has over 95% of their natural habitat left. Also, according to Yale University's Environmental Performance Index, Iceland scored a 100% in regards to air and water quality and control over diseases.
On the other hand, Iceland also depends heavily on fish as a main resource, and has recently started whaling again after stopping whale hunting in 1989 due to concerns for the existence of the species. Also, there is a possible fear that as economic pressures drive Iceland to tap into their abundance of natural resources, wild life and natural land will begin to diminish. It is these environmental issues that will most likely be some of the largest problems for Iceland to address in the future.
Another target for this goal is to improve the population’s access to drinkable water and improved sanitation. This is an area that Iceland has covered almost perfectly, with 100% of the population using improved sanitation and 98% to 100% using an improved water supply.

#8: Global Partnership

The first target of this goal is to expand global trade to lesser developed countries. Although Iceland has increased it's exports and imports alike, trade is mostly done throughout other neighboring European countries. Iceland has valuable resources that any country could use to import, therefore Iceland should continue to develop and strengthen relationships with countries outside of its European region.
Another target is to expand foreign aid to developing countries. Since Iceland's economic crises, the amount of foreign aid they gave has decreased to about .27% of their GDP. This is an area Iceland certainly needs to work on, and could possibly be solved by creating a larger work force with an increase in immigrants.
In regards to dealing with the global debt issues, Iceland still has progress to make. Although their external debt is not nearly as high as some other developed nations, it is still rather high considering their economy and GDP. They are steadily fixing this issue however. Unemployment in Iceland continues to drop and their GDP is improving quicker than most countries who faced economic crisis during the same time. The goal will most likely not be met by 2015, but efforts to improve have no reason to not continue.
Lastly, Iceland is doing rather well in the area of advanced technology. Cellphone use and internet use is nation wide for Iceland and when compared with other European countries, Iceland spends a larger amount on scientific developments.